Chipre: La ley del embudo

getimageEl Ecofin, a finales de 2007, saludaba así la ampliación de la zona Euro a Malta y a Chipre: «Malta y Chipre, desde su acceso a la UE, han emprendido un extraordinario ajuste fiscal para alcanzar unas finanzas públicas “solventes” y “sostenibles” como requieren los criterios de convergencia de Maastricht». Y añadía que cumplen «las condiciones necesarias para ingresar en el euro a partir del 1 de enero de 2008».

Ironías del destino, la nota oficial del Ecofin, en el siguiente párrafo, sostiene: «Más ventajas de forma inminente: El euro seguirá llevando crecimiento y estabilidad a los dos estados insulares. Les ayudará a preservar la estabilidad de precios y les otorgará el beneficio de los históricamente bajos tipos de interés de la zona euro». Y continúa: «Impulsará el comercio exterior, al eliminarse los costes de transacción». (Esta nota de prensa todavía puede encontrarse en internet –en inglés– en la siguiente dirección: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/ focuson/ focu – son10520_en.htm).


Finales de marzo de 2013, Chipre, su economía y su sistema bancario están en quiebra, cuando hace sólo 5 años, según el Ecofin, gozaba de una excelente salud. Y en lugar de esas «inminentes ventajas», los chipriotas se encuentran hoy con una economía y un sistema financiero devastados por fuerzas que no comprenden y de las que no se sienten responsables. Y lo que es aún peor: el mismo Ecofin que decía a los chipriotas que sus ahorros y sus inversiones estaban mucho más seguras y garantizadas por la solidez del euro, ahora les dicen que, para mantener la solidez del euro, deben renunciar a parte de sus ahorros y parte de sus inversiones. En otras palabras, si quieren 10.000 millones de euros de dinero europeo para rescatar su sistema bancario, tendrán que renunciar a parte de sus ahorros o salir del euro.

Es cierto que el sistema bancario chipriota ha aprovechado a conciencia la ventaja de los «históricamente bajos» tipos de interés. Pero no es menos cierto que la deuda del sector público chipriota está en torno al 70% del PIB, y que el déficit está en torno al 6%. Esas cifras, comparadas con las que hoy muestran España, Italia e incluso Alemania, más que escandalosas son casi dignas de envidia, dadas las circunstancias. Luego el problema de Chipre no es tanto de exceso de gasto público. Es, más bien, un problema inherente al diseño del euro: para que una moneda no basada en activos tangibles (oro, divisas convertibles) sea estable, lo primero que hay que hacer es controlar la cantidad y la calidad de la deuda denominada en esa moneda (ya sea deuda pública o privada), y seguir siempre los mismos criterios, haga frío o calor, llueva, truene o nieve, sin ceder a coyunturas políticas o económicas. Esos criterios de estabilidad, los criterios de Maastricht, eran muy claros: deuda pública por debajo del 60% del PIB, inflación inferior al 3% y déficit público inferior también al 3%.

Y el primer país en incumplirlos fue, precisamente, Alemania, que presionó al BCE para bajar los tipos de interés cuando el estallido de la burbuja tecnológica hizo entrar en recesión a Alemania en 2001, elevando su déficit por encima del 3% y su deuda pública por encima del 60%. La Comisión Europea «estudió» hace más de diez años sancionar a Alemania por incumplir los criterios de Maastricht. Pero quedó sólo en eso, en «estudio». Mientras tanto, ese exceso de crédito barato del BCE provocó en países como España y Grecia una burbuja cuyas consecuencias estamos hoy sufriendo amargamente. Alemania fue la gran beneficiada de esa gran burbuja de crédito, que se dirigió preferentemente a España, Irlanda y Grecia, cuyas economías estaban en auge. Así, gracias al consumo de productos alemanes por parte de los países del sur, Alemania salió de su recesión. Pero hoy, 10 años después, le toca a Chipre pagar los platos rotos de la orgía de crédito barato impulsada por el BCE. El problema es que, cumpliendo (o, mejor dicho, incumpliendo) los criterios de Maastricht más o menos en los mismos términos que Alemania, para Chipre no habrá excepciones ni clemencia, como tampoco las ha habido para Grecia, para Italia, para Irlanda o para España. Es la ley del embudo que suelen aplicar los más fuertes a los más débiles o a los más pequeños. Y en el caso de Chipre, como es más pequeño que Grecia, y mucho más pequeño que España e Italia, la factura del despropósito en la gestión de la moneda única le llega con apremio, recargo, intereses de demora y, además, un embargo: el de los ahorros de los chipriotas. Esta última vuelta de tuerca que pretenden aplicar a Chipre los mismos que prometieron a los chipriotas todos los €uroparabienes, además de una grave injusticia, es también una tremenda irresponsabilidad: si algo impulsa todavía a los europeos a confiar en el euro y a mantener su dinero en los bancos es, precisamente, la norma sagrada de que los depósitos bancarios por debajo de 100.000 euros no se tocaban. La experiencia demuestra que no hay excepciones únicas: si se saquean las cuentas de los pequeños ahorradores en Chipre, nada garantiza que no se acabarán saqueando las de los ahorradores de otros países. Además, esta frivolidad puede provocar un grave conflicto con Rusia. Quizá el origen de los depósitos rusos en Chipre no sea todo lo limpio que debiera, pero Rusia no es Chipre, algo que parecen olvidar los capitanes del euro.

El BCE y el eurogrupo, liderado por Merkel, deben hacer honor a su palabra y a sus responsabilidades. Entre ellas estaba vigilar la estabilidad del euro. Y si no han sabido, querido o podido hacerlo, deben tratar a todos los países por igual: o se salva a todos los bancos quebrados en toda la zona euro, o se les deja quebrar garantizando, eso sí, el 100% de los depósitos por debajo de 100.000 euros. Personalmente, preferiría esto último, pero aplicado en todos los casos, porque la socialización de pérdidas, además de injusta, es irresponsable. Lo que nunca será legítimo es la aplicación de la ley del embudo: si no se deja quebrar a un banco o una caja francesa, española, italiana o alemana, salvándolas con crédito del BCE o con dinero del contribuyente europeo, ¿por qué no se hace lo mismo con los bancos chipriotas cuando, además, la factura es de «sólo» 6.000 millones de euros? ¿Sólo porque Chipre es un país pequeño?

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  158. Esperanza, ¿Cuál es su postura acerca de los Euro-bonos y la salida del euro de España?. El articulo es correcto, pero como dice un comentario anterior si gran parte del dinero que llegaba a España venia de Alemania se debería hacer más hincapié en la alternativa de los Euro-bonos ¿no creé?.

  159. he leido todo sobre esta noticia y no he entendido mucho lo poco q entiendo es q quieren poner a los chipriano a pagar una deuda q no es de ellos ni culpa de ellos porfavor alguien q sepa mas de esto me explique xq paso esto? como paso esto? y para q se esta haciendo eso? gracias

  160. Da gusto leer tus artículos Esperanza, llenos de conocimiento y claridad.
    Verás yo nací, me crié, estudié y empecé a trabajar con la peseta.
    El cambio al euro no me gustó, y sin conocimientos de economía, presentí que no saldría bien del todo, pero de eso a que roben al pequeño ahorrador…
    Y cuando el presidente del gobierno de España y su ministro Montoro repiten una y otra vez que en España no va a pasar lo de Chipre, yo pienso “explicatio non petita…”. Mejor guardar nuestros ahorros fuera de España o dentro de casa.
    Mis mejores deseos en todos los aspectos para ti Esperanza y !ojala volvieras¡No hay nadie como tu.

  161. Claro ejemplo de mensaje subliminal que todos los días recibimos y que nos termina encauzando hacia donde el poder quiere… descartándose otras otras alternativas que terminan siendo invisibles por no mostrarse y llevándonos a la conclusión de “no hay otra alternativa posible”

    Esperanza aunque explica algunos orígenes de los problemas de Europa no menciona todo.
    Se omite el enorme flujo de dinero que llegaba a España de Alemania.
    http://www.taringa.net/posts/info/13104130/No-son-Grecia-ni-Espana-el-problema-es-Alemania-ECONOMIA.html
    http://www.administraciondigital.es/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=132:el-problema-no-es-grecia-ni-espana-sino-eeuu-y-alemania-&catid=27:enfoques

    Y al omitir lo anterior tampoco muestra una de las alternativas posibles y que debería ser más defendida: los EUROBONOS
    En este post imprescindible y muy corto queda explicado claramente http://www.rafapacheco.com/2011/08/europa-federal-ya.html

  162. Eso de hacer pagar los platos rotos a los ahorradores y eso de quitarle a la gente lo que es suyo me recuerda a alguien… A Hugo Chavez. Si Europa pretende resolver los problemas con arbitrariedades dignas de republicas bananeras poca fe me queda ya en el viejo continente.

  163. Buenas tardes me parece increíble lo que cuentas en tu blog pero creo que en dos semanas nos hemos cargado parte de nuestra seguridad jurídica. Ahora si hay problemas financieros, parte de la factura la pagarán los depositantes de más de 100000.00 euros(burrada), si tienes productos híbridos y lo sabes ahora, no hace 3 años, que son híbridos pierdes hasta el 50% y encima lo justificamos (más burrada), pero es que sí tienes una casa y no pagas la hipoteca no pasa nada, porque como seguro que tendrá cláusulas abusivas no te echaran (burrada sin igual). Es decir reformamos nuestro sistema judicial por las directrices europeas (alemanas sobre todo) y generamos una inseguridad jurídica que puede acabar con el sistema y encima decimos que lo hacemos bien. Si la gente no puede pagar sus pisos aumenta la duración de la hipoteca hasta los 100 años si es necesario, emite deuda europea para financiar a toda la CEE, etc ¿A lo mejor ha llegado el momento de salir de la unión?

  164. La burocratización de Europa es una rémora, no reconoce que el centro de gravedad de la economia de producción se ha desplazado hacia oriente. El libre mercado favorece a las corporaciones industriales pero no contempla a los ciudadanos de occidente, abocados al paro. Si sumamos a esto los egoismos centroeuropeos y despejamos la ecuación el resultado es Chipre y otras capitales cristianas y paganas, que dijo Yago, en Otelo.

  165. Donha Esperanza, Ud no debio marcharse. Siempre la vi como la futura Presidenta del Gobierno de Espanha. Lo siento mi teclado es frances ( expatriado en Francia, cosas de la vida!).

  166. No puedo creer que haya tan mala fe de la parte del BCE y de tanto burocrata europeo tan bien pagado … parecen ser poco competentes, quiza un Seminario sobre los conceptos e ideas basicas de Von Mises podria ayudarles … cuando la sra Merkel y el Primer Ministro chipriota hablaban de investigar las causas y encontrar a los responsables de semejante desproposito me suena a “olvidemos todo y empezemos nuevamente”. Me desalienta cuando veo la estatura intelectual ( y moral!) de nuestros politicos . :(

  167. los alemanes nos estrangulan economicamente para vivir ellos de las rentas a todos los paises de la comunidad europea, que falta le hace a chipre esta en la union europea cuando tiene pozos de gas, todos fuera del euro que alemania quiere vivir acosta de todo el resto de los paises

  168. Para un ciudadano de a pie como yo, la entrada de España en el euro supuso una aumento del costo de vida de alrededor de un 60 por ciento, por Ej lo que antes valia 1oo pesetas paso a valer 1 euro y ahi empezo nuestro calvario y eso que los politicos no se cansaban de repetir la misma cancion: “Ustedes no van a notar el cambio” ..jejeje vaya si lo notamos y lo seguimos notando, los ingleses mas listos han dicho Europeos si pero la libra es la libra..Ahora la sensacion que tenemos los espàñoles es que ya no somos dueños de nada, tenemos que tragar lo que mandan los de norte, hay un viejo refran pero muy cierto” las medias son para los pies”..eso de la moneda única es otra utopia de la cual se aprovecharon unos cuantos vivos.

  169. Con la prohibición para los depósitos en Chipre de la libre circulación de Capitales dentro de la zona Euro, se contraviene una de las cuatro libertades fundamentales junto a la libre circulación de personas, bienes y servicios. Un principio incluidos en los tratados que no está sujeto a prescripción. Con ello además de la vulneración de dicho principio se han creado de facto dos monedas, existiendo un euro sujeto a la prohibición de libre circulación de capitales en Chipre y otro euro con esta facultad y con un valor por consiguiente diferente al primero. Un grave error apoyado por el BCE.

  170. Las recientes declaraciones del presidente del Eurogrupo Sr. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, en relación a la solución aplicada a Chipre refiriéndose a dicha solución que . Han contribuido al descenso ocurrido hoy en los mercados financieros de la zona Euro siendo el del IBEX 35 del -2,27%. posteriormente el ministro holandés de Finanzas ha asegurado mediante su portavoz que el acuerdo de rescate a Chipre es “una solución única” en contraposición a la palabra “modelo” empleada anteriormente. Siendo la portavoz del presidente del Eurogrupo la que negase posteriormente el haber empleado este la palabra o , TEMPLATE en inglés, sin desechar la posibilidad de que se puedan volver a repetir situaciones parecidas a las acaecidas con el rescate de Chipre de restricción bancaria.
    Con la prohibición para los depósitos en Chipre de la libre circulación de Capitales dentro de la zona Euro se contraviene una de las cuatro libertades fundamentales dentro de la Eurozona junto a la libre circulación de personas, bienes y servicios. Un principio incluidos en los tratados que no está sujeto a prescripción. Con ello además de la vulneración dedicho principio se han creado de facto dos monedas existiendo un euro sujeto a la prohibición de libre circulación de capitales en Chipre y otro euro con esta facultad y con un valor por consiguiente diferente al primero. Un grave error apoyado por el BCE.

  171. Esto de chipre no será una treta para que los ciudadanos invertamos ahora en oro, plata, o comprar otra vez más inmuebles, o diamantes en Amberes. Nos han metido el miedo para que guardemos nuestro dinero debajo del colchon.
    El que invierte en deuda de un pais recibiendo buenos intereses, si quiebra el pais lo lógico es que pierdan su inversión, total o parte de ella. Lo que es un atraco es que esas perdidas las tengan que pagar los ciudadanos que tenemos guardado nuestro dinero en una imposición o c/c recibiendo pocos intereses por no correr riesgos. ¿Es que nos han pagado a los ciudadanos de calle un seguro de posible quiebra de los grandes inversionistas?.

  172. Si, definitivamente Chipre ha pagado los platos rotos, es más, ellos mismos (BCE) califican ésta situación de vergüenza de cara al exterior. No me parece ni justo ni apropiado hacerles pagar de esa forma, porque ahora habrá que ver la letra pequeña de ese Memorándum firmado anoche a altas horas de la madrugada. Siento mucho que los chipriotas se vean envueltos ahora en un caos en los que ellos no tienen nada que ver, pero que desdeluego va a tener consecuencias negativas, lo que si queda patente que el Euro, sigue estando muy debilitado.

  173. Quizas este articulo demuestre una de las virtudes que tienes: la Claridad. Jajaja. Recuerdo como has desarmado en cientos de ocasiones al ahora ministrillo o a ese impresentable de Gomez. Lastima que hasta los tuyos te teman!!

  174. Aviso: a la dirección de internet proporcionada le falta una “l” al final html. No obstante te remite a la página actualizada de hoy y hace casi imposible ver la nota. Cosas de la vida.

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